Saturday 1 June 2013

Flaws in Decisions

Realistically weighing up different options might be the weakest link when making a decision.


A psychology graduate has identified that I may have underestimated what is needed to compare options when following my five steps to making a decision [1]

Following a conversation we agreed there are two main influences when making a decision:
  1. Why we do it – an “individual moral code” to desire a particular behaviour
  2. How we do it – our “self-efficacy” to successfully conduct that behaviour

She advised that the motivation to make a decision which results in change is heavily influenced by emotional factors. For many people she treats, the perceived likelihood of failure can be a primary determinant for whether a decision is made for the better, or at all.

This value of self-preservation is reflected in stockmarket trends where the risk of feeling regret for buying shares that tank, compared to the reward for buying shares that grow is primarily influenced more by emotions than rationale [2].

Buying shares to make money might not be the best analogy for behaviour change though. When the conversation turned to exercise habits the ball was in my court to talk about what is really needed to get people to change.

If people know they should, why don’t they?

From my experience and research [3] as an Accredited Exercise Physiologist, educating people about why they should exercise doesn’t work to change behaviour. The reason: it doesn’t help people to build their capacity or “self-efficacy” to successfully perform the action. Spouting about the reduction in risk of cardiac disease through nitric oxide induced vasodilation following 20 minutes of light to moderate physical activity does nothing to help when you are walking in the rain, your feet hurt and there is no social enjoyment.

This is where the power of self-efficacy reigns supreme. Having role models, the right equipment, a supportive environment and a history of smaller achievements reinforce competence. From what I have seen, doing an activity (the how) has much more bearing on actually doing it compared to weighing up all of the reasons and values relating to why it should be done in the first place.

The approach I take is to reduce the threshold for success to increase confidence, then build on it. From a psychological perspective though some work may need to be done first to discover personal values. Although even then the perception of what behaviour will makes us feel happy vs distress of often far from accurate.

According to the oracle that is TED, humans are bad at making decisions [4]. The negative impact of making a change is overestimated in the short term, and the positive impact is underestimated in the long term.

This is reflected in a study of people who win lottery vs become paraplegic [5]. A review of each group one year after living with the change measured their level of happiness to be much the same. Asking people how happy they expect they would be one year after each experience demonstrates a perception vastly different to the actual result.

Why vs how balance depends on an individuals background. When we know the outcome will be poor why do we keep behaving that way? Sometimes the barrier to changing for the better might be out of an individuals control such as the environment, or genetics.

Also the way that happiness is synthesised can influence decision making [6]. To the contrary of my intention of this entire blog, it is possible that having the option to make a decision will only result in less happiness!

Ultimately though we need to make decisions. There are differences in the way people weigh up options, and it may be the case that strong values can overcome the need for knowing how to accomplish a goal. This is an element I intend to explore further, including the influence of personality on the perception of decision outcomes.

What matter more to you; knowing what you want (why), or your level of confidence that you can get it (how)?


References

[1] How I make decisions, Joel Penson. Better Decisions Blog.

[2] Emotional theory in the stockmarket, David Ingram.

[3] Illawarra Healthy Hearts Project (see acknowledgements page iii).

[4] The paradox of choice, Barry Schartz. TED talks.

[5] Does winning the lottery make you happier? New Republic.

[6] To simplify, Glenn Morrissette.
http://www.tosimplify.net/2012/11/synthesizing-happiness.html

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